Polls ahead of the elections on Sunday, January 25, show a lead by the main opposition Radical Left Coalition (SYRIZA) party between 4 and 6.5 units. Data by Alco gathered for Proto Thema shows 11.5% of those who voted for the conservative ND party in the June 2012 elections are now turning to SYRIZA, whereas the opposite flow from SYRIZA to the ND is just 2%.

A poll by the University of Macedonia for SKAI showed a trend followed by 11% of old ND voters turning to SYRIZA whereas just 1% of voters flowed from SYRIZA to ND.

Political analysists believe that traditional rightists, around 3% of total voters, want to punish the conservative government for overtaxing, lockages, recession and unemployment. It is estimated that if traditional ND voters had remained stable, then the difference between the two parties would have been canceled out or even have given the ND party a narrow lead.

The current situation is causing SYRIZA to seek autonomy in the next elections, whereas there are indications that the next Parliament will be comprised of seven parties if the latest data showing Independent Greeks (ANEL) going over the 3% limit.

Specifically Alco’s poll shows SYRIZA gathering 31.7% (+0.5% from the previous poll of the same government) putting the party 4.4% ahead of the ND at 27.3% (-0.4%). Centrist Potami party is in the third place with 5.1%, followed by the ultranationalist Golden Dawn with 4.8% (-0.2%), socialist PASOK with 4.1% (+0.5%), the Greek Communist Party (KKE) with 4.1% (+0.1%). Independent Greeks (ANEL) are at 3.2% (+0.6%), an amount that would put the rightist party in Parliament if confirmed.

Alco’s poll translates to 147 seats for SYRIZA and 86 for ND, followed by Potami (16 seats), Golden Dawn (15), PASOK (13), KKE (13) and ANEL (10). If ANEL doesn’t manage to pass the 3% threshold, then SYRIZA would have 151 seats.