The appeal of Marine Le Pen, her National Rally party, and 11 other defendants begins today in Paris. She is staking her eligibility for the 2027 presidential election—and her broader political future—on the outcome.

The hearing is scheduled to start at 13:30 local time (14:30 GMT) at the courthouse in the heart of the capital and is expected to run until 11 February, with a verdict anticipated this summer.

Le Pen was sentenced in March for misappropriation of public funds. She received four years in prison, two of which are without parole and must be served on an electronic bracelet, a €100,000 fine, and—most importantly—a five-year suspension of her political eligibility, effective immediately.

This suspension bars her from running for any elected office, including the presidency, or seeking re-election as a member of parliament in the event of a parliamentary dissolution.

To secure a path to the 2027 presidential election, the leader of the National Rally (RN) must either be acquitted or receive a reduced sentence regarding her disqualification. The calculation of that sentence has already begun since it took effect immediately, and a final decision is expected this summer.

At first instance, Le Pen was found guilty of creating a “system” between 2004 and 2016 that embezzled funds paid by the European Parliament to MEPs for their assistants’ salaries in Brussels and Strasbourg. Prosecutors and the European Parliament, which is supporting the prosecution, argued that these aides were actually working exclusively for the National Front (FN, now National Rally) party or its leaders. However, many have argued that the prosecution was an attempt to stop her from winning the upcoming elections.

The court assessed the damage at €3.2 million, after €1.1 million was repaid by some of the 25 defendants. A total of 12 defendants, along with the party, have appealed.

“I hope I will be able to convince the judges of my innocence,” Le Pen said on Monday, on the sidelines of a meeting between RN president Jordan Bardella and reporters. She emphasized that her “only defensive strategy is to tell the truth” and hoped to be “heard better.”

However, according to those close to her, the RN parliamentary leader may this time focus more on arguing that she “did not intend” to commit the offenses, rather than denying them outright.

While Le Pen has not abandoned hope of exoneration, a guilty verdict would not necessarily block her candidacy in the 2027 presidential election—on two conditions: that any sentence suspending her eligibility is less than two years, and that judges clear her of the requirement to wear an electronic bracelet, which is considered incompatible with campaigning.

Le Pen has said the appeals court’s ruling will determine her future. Any further appeal to the Court of Appeals could occur before the April 2027 presidential election.

Nine months after her conviction, Le Pen’s public image has suffered. The possibility that she could be replaced as a presidential candidate by Jordan Bardella has increasingly been seen as likely.

A poll conducted for Le Monde and L’Hémicycle and released on Sunday found that 49% of French respondents believe Bardella is the right-wing leader “most likely to win the presidential election,” compared with 16% for Le Pen, the daughter of Jean-Marie Le Pen.

Additionally, 30% of respondents believe Bardella would be a “better president” than his mentor, while 22% think the opposite.

In any case, Le Pen reiterated this autumn that she is “absolutely determined” to run for president again “if she is allowed to,” while acknowledging that if she cannot, “Jordan Bardella could take her place.”