Recent developments highlight the delicate balance on which the U.S.–Iran agreement to end the war in the Middle East rests. These developments appear to have led to the cancellation of the first scheduled meeting between the two countries in Geneva today following the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding by Trump and Pezeshkian.

According to the Al Mayadeen network, which is close to Hezbollah, the Iranian negotiating delegation postponed its trip to Switzerland because of ongoing Israeli military actions in southern Lebanon.

The report states that the delegation had already prepared to leave Iran and begin the first round of negotiations—which was scheduled to last 60 days—before the decision was made to suspend the trip.

According to the Lebanese network, Tehran had previously informed both Washington and the mediators that the Lebanon issue remains a central component of the negotiations and would directly affect the course of the talks. The source cited claimed that the continued Israeli military activity extending up to 10 kilometers into Lebanese territory constitutes a clear violation of the first clause of the Memorandum of Understanding and the framework agreement.

A few hours later, while U.S. media reported that Vice President J.D. Vance was preparing to board Air Force Two, the White House announced that his trip to Geneva had also been postponed.

According to a White House spokesperson, the delay was due to “unresolved logistical issues related to the next phase of the negotiations.”

“As the Vice President stated during his press conference, plans for the upcoming technical talks have not yet been finalized, and the U.S. delegation is prepared to depart at the earliest opportunity. But the logistics of these negotiations have never been simple or predictable,” the spokesperson said.

“For now, the Vice President is not departing tonight. We will provide an update as soon as we have concrete information regarding the next step. We look forward to beginning technical discussions as soon as possible,” the spokesperson added.

On Thursday, J.D. Vance had stated that he intended to travel to Switzerland to attend the signing of the agreement, adding that technical negotiations aimed at finalizing the deal were expected to begin over the weekend and that he “definitely plans” to lead the U.S. negotiating team.

Market Reaction

Asian markets reacted positively on Friday to the agreement between the United States and Iran to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Stocks rose while oil prices posted significant losses. However, the postponement of Vice President Vance’s trip to Switzerland served as a reminder that the process remains ongoing and that technical negotiations have not yet been completed.

Asian markets advanced on expectations that the Washington–Tehran agreement would normalize energy flows from the Persian Gulf and reduce inflationary risks for the global economy.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.68% to close at 70,375.24 points, while South Korea’s Kospi gained 0.78% to 8,933.03 points. The broader MSCI Asia Pacific index rose approximately 0.3%, approaching record highs.

Markets in Japan and Australia also performed well, as easing geopolitical risks reduced concerns about inflation and global growth.

Wall Street followed the positive trend, recovering most of the previous session’s losses and further boosting investor optimism.

Specifically, the Dow Jones gained 0.14%, remaining just below the 52,000-point mark at 51,564. The S&P 500 rose 1.08% to 7,500 points, while the Nasdaq jumped 1.91% to 26,517 points.

It should be noted that U.S. markets were scheduled to remain closed on Friday due to the Juneteenth holiday, which commemorates the end of slavery following the American Civil War.

Ahead of the holiday—and because of the expiration of derivatives contracts considered the largest in U.S. market history—trading volume was above average. According to Citadel Securities, contracts with a total notional value of $8.3 trillion expired during the session.

As a result, all three major indexes ended the four-day trading week with gains. The Dow, which broke through the 52,000-point barrier during the week, gained 0.8%, roughly matching the S&P 500, which completed its 11th positive week out of the last 12. The Nasdaq was the strongest performer, rising 2%.

Investors believe that the agreement between Washington and Tehran significantly reduces the risk of disruptions to the global energy supply chain, benefiting equities and reducing demand for safe-haven assets.

Oil Falls After Hormuz Reopens

In the energy market, the reaction was even stronger. Brent crude traded at $79.63 per barrel on Friday, posting another daily decline, while U.S. WTI crude fell to $76.05 per barrel.

According to analysts, oil is heading for weekly losses of roughly 9%, as the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz eases fears of disruptions to global supply.

Prices are now at their lowest levels in three months following the signing of the preliminary agreement between the United States and Iran.

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is considered a critical development for markets because approximately 20% of global oil consumption and a significant portion of liquefied natural gas exports pass through this maritime corridor.

During the crisis, hundreds of tankers were stranded or avoided passing through the area. Although the agreement calls for the resumption of navigation, analysts note that it will take weeks for commercial flows to fully recover and return to pre-war levels.

The first tankers have already begun transiting the area normally, strengthening expectations of stabilization in energy markets.

Markets Await the Next Round of Talks

The postponement of the trip did not alter the positive sentiment in financial markets, but it served as a reminder that the agreement remains in a preliminary stage.

Investors are now closely watching the technical negotiations expected to begin over the weekend, as their outcome will determine crucial issues such as sanctions relief, Tehran’s nuclear program, and the long-term operational framework governing the Strait of Hormuz.