Hello. The three scandals of recent days—the basketball scandal, the Pizza Fan scandal, and yesterday’s much larger scandal in terms of the sums of money involved and corruption, concerning tax evasion and more by businesses operating bakeries, nightclubs, strip clubs, etc.—are dominating the news, with the last one now, of course, being the sexier story, because it is certainly still unfolding and has a bit of everything. We all knew that enormous amounts of black money had been hidden behind this operation for years, but somehow the guy had managed to get away with it until yesterday… And the authorities, namely the Hellenic Police (ELAS)—Michalis’s police, right?—made a major effort to keep it secret until the operation was complete. You don’t expect to read here about what is happening in basketball. Of course, there may be a few more prosecutions of people involved, because there are another dozen or so names in the case file. But I’ll pass on what the Maximos Mansion (MM) believes and what it is saying. Well, they clearly consider it serious and, in fact, want to see how things develop with regard to the administration of basketball. They have been informed that, for the time being, no team or teams are implicated in the case file or elsewhere, and they believe that the current basketball backroom operation is a continuation of the previous one, with some changes in the people involved. They also consider it unfortunate that sports officials are presenting themselves as public accusers on social media, “giving the impression that Greece is a Third World country.” But I don’t see them doing anything about it, because, as we’ve said, the MM always operates according to the principle of “keeping on good terms with everyone and everything.” Not just now, but ever since the first day of 2019. In any case, the official government line is close to the “glass half full” theory: in other words, “we are the government that is exposing the scandals, both in basketball and in the major tax-evasion case, etc.” Yes, okay, that is one way of looking at things from their perspective, and I don’t blame them for it. As for the pizza tax-evasion scandal, the truth is that the involvement of so many people through franchising in a fraud case is probably an unprecedented situation, and this also creates a problem for the 2,500 employees. It will take some time to resolve, probably through the market itself, perhaps via a change of ownership or the acquisition of a stake by other companies that will presumably need workers. There is also the option of an internal solution within the company, but with so much entanglement and fraud, that seems difficult to me. Needless to say, credit—and rightly so—for the money-laundering case involving bakeries and other storefront businesses used as fronts goes to Chryssochoidis’s Greek FBI, which is proving that he remains the most effective Minister for Citizen Protection.

Dora’s Oracles

On Saturday, I was told that Dora had attended an event, spoken to an audience of businesspeople and executives, and said some interesting things. She spoke mainly about foreign affairs, on which she has always had a sound and well-informed opinion. She was supportive of the government, making it clear why, in the case of the Turkish-Libyan memorandum, we could not have taken many different courses of action. On the more tantalizing domestic political issues in the news, when Dora was asked whether she would run again in Chania, she said no: she would not enter the battle for preference votes. Naturally, she did not mention what she is actually after, namely a prominent place on the State List, which Mitsotakis is not offering her for the time being. I’m told that she has told her son, Kostas, to run in her place in Chania, where he would win without breaking a sweat, rather than running in Athens’s First Electoral District or for mayor, but I don’t know the details. Dora was also asked about what lies ahead in the national elections, and she said that if her brother gets less than 25%, he will resign and a new leader will be elected in New Democracy. Someone told me that Dendias’s name also came up in that discussion, but I’m not entirely sure about that. Most likely, it was simply one of the audience members who mentioned the minister’s name, rather than Dora herself.

Gerapetritis’s Contacts with Egypt

Over the past few days, Foreign Minister Gerapetritis has come under heavy fire against the backdrop of the Turkish-Libyan Memorandum. Before departing for the United States, where he will be for the entire week, Gerapetritis nevertheless made sure to do a fair amount of work on the Egypt front, given that Egypt is also a highly sought-after partner for Turkey. In direct contact with his counterpart, Badr Abdelatty, with whom he maintains a close personal relationship, they agreed to move forward with discussions on the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) beyond the 28th meridian. When and how this will happen remains an open question, but the Egyptians are clearly committing themselves to playing ball with us. His role was also crucial in the discussions concerning Saint Catherine’s Monastery on Mount Sinai, in order to avert, at the last minute, a court ruling by the Egyptian judiciary that would have put the monastery’s future to the test. Now, under the agreement that will be presented in greater detail over the coming days, the future and character of the monastery will be secured. Until now, it had operated largely… on the basis of verbal understandings and without a legal status. What matters for the government in the case of Sinai is that the formula set out in the agreement has the unanimous backing of the Orthodox Church, which is not something that happens often.

MBS’s Thanks for the Patriots

I’m hearing that yesterday’s one-on-one meeting between Mitsotakis and Saudi Arabia’s MBS was very warm, with the Saudi Crown Prince thanking the prime minister for Greece’s support through the provision of Patriot systems since 2021 and emphasizing that the people of Saudi Arabia will always remember this gesture by Greece. The meeting, both the private discussion and the session with the delegations, lasted approximately an hour and a half and covered every issue. There was extensive discussion of the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and oil prices, as well as a broader conversation about the war in Iran and the activities of Yemen’s Houthis. Those present at the meeting on the Saudi side included the ministers of Foreign Affairs, Energy, and Trade, as well as Saudi Arabia’s National Security Adviser.

From Riyadh to Agios Dimitrios

Mitsotakis now, after Riyadh, has domestic tours on his schedule. Today he will be in Agios Dimitrios, as the Archbishop of Australia will conduct a service this morning at the church of the same name in the area. On Tuesday, he will go to Kilkis and then stay overnight in Thessaloniki, in order to attend the parade along the city’s waterfront on Wednesday morning. From Thessaloniki, Mitsotakis will return, head to Elefsina, and board a plane for the United States, where he has engagements at the United Nations.

Adonis Congratulates Dendias

You know that Adonis’s relationship with Dendias is somewhat stormy, which is why yesterday’s public praise of the Defence Minister by the Health Minister, via X, caught my attention. Adonis congratulated Dendias on his message in support of breast cancer prevention, while also pointing out that, since October 21, the new outpatient Breast Clinic has been operating at NIMTS, strengthening healthcare provision for women who wear the national emblem.

From Boiled Goat to Luxembourg

Margaritis Schinas is engaged in an ongoing process of “massaging” the “hardliners” among the farmers. After welcoming the Thessalians at the Maximos Mansion, meeting the Macedonian farmers in Thessaloniki, and visiting the fishermen in Michaniona, among other things, on Saturday he also went to meet the toughest group, in Galatista. In any case, I gather that the discussion went smoothly, because the evening ended with everyone eating boiled goat. The announcement that agricultural diesel would be tax-free at the pump from November 1 presumably helped as well. When you’ve had all these meetings, the Agriculture Ministers’ Council in Luxembourg today and tomorrow is obviously going to be a walk in the sunshine.

Tsipras’s Plan to Damage PASOK

In the battle for second place, PASOK may have gained some psychological momentum after seeing opinion polls show the gap narrowing between it and Tsipras’s ELAS [a likely typo or editorial wordplay in the original, apparently referring to Tsipras’s political formation]. But that doesn’t mean people in Alexis’s party are sitting on their hands. They recognize that they have a problem in the regions, which is why former SYRIZA MPs who are resigning will also be brought into action and set on the road to Amalias Street. The main plan, however, is to mobilize local personalities with strong appeal in their communities who come from PASOK, so that the strategy works in two ways: strengthening the party led by Alexis while also weakening PASOK, which performs better in the regions than it does in the greater Athens metropolitan area. A characteristic example is Vaggelis Zacharis, the former president of the Regional Council of Crete, who will be on Tsipras’s electoral list in Heraklion and comes from PASOK. Tsipras’s people are “scanning” other prefectures for similar cases.

“Probably Yes” for the GLS–ACS Deal

Let’s move on to market news, starting with the business story of the week, which will keep us occupied for quite some time. It is none other than the story involving Quest Holdings and its subsidiary ACS Courier, since Friday, October 30, is the deadline for General Logistics System (GLS) to respond as to whether it will buy the remaining 80% of ACS for a minimum consideration of €296 million. The column has been working on this for days, but unfortunately, when it comes to the potential GLS–ACS deal, everyone has sworn an oath of silence. Naturally, nobody at the company is saying anything, while bankers and stockbrokers who have tried to obtain information have been met with closed doors. To cut a long story short, after repeated attempts, the first clue emerged: a terse “it’s going well.” So, based on “it’s going well,” combined with the oath of silence, the column infers that the deal is progressing positively, although it has not yet been finalized. I should also add that information from other sources suggests the deal will go ahead, but with some reduction in the agreed price. Consequently, if the column had to place a bet, it would wager that Fessas will pull off yet another successful deal—a bet that clearly carries the risk that these transactions remain uncertain right up until the very last moment.

EOS Capital: New CEO, 3 New Funds (One in Shipping), and €1 Billion in Assets

There are significant developments in the market, too, in the funds sector, specifically at Apostolos Tamvakakis’s EOS Capital. According to information, EOS has appointed a new Chief Executive Officer, namely Nikolas Chrysanthakopoulos, who has been part of EOS since 2024 as a senior partner and member of the Investment Committee. He is also well known in the market for his time at Alpha Bank. A. Tamvakakis is taking on the role of Executive Chairman, and the most interesting aspect is the reasons behind these changes. More specifically, EOS is reorganizing itself by adopting a new structure resembling that of comparable funds abroad. From being a single-focus fund, the company is transforming into an asset-management platform with different areas of activity and investment objectives, broadening the options available to investors. Different funds will sit under the platform company, each with its own dedicated management team and different financial incentives. At present, the organization has three funds: EOS I, with a limit of up to €50 million per investment; EOS II, with a limit of up to €100 million; and the Infrastructure Fund. During the first half of 2027, three more funds will be added. Specifically, the first Greek shipping fund, a real estate fund, and a third fund with a different focus, about which no further information is available. The processes for establishing the new funds are already at an advanced stage, meaning that by the summer of 2027, EOS Capital will be managing assets worth €1 billion.

TERNA Energy: First Major Deal Since Masdar Acquisition Finalized and Set to Be Announced

TERNA Energy has finalized one of the largest deals in the domestic photovoltaic market, acquiring the “Enipeas” project from British company Lightsource bp. The project has a total capacity of 560 MWp and is being developed in Larissa and Phthiotis. According to information, the relevant announcements are now a matter of hours. This is the company’s first major investment move in Greece since its acquisition by Masdar, coming approximately six months after Aristotelis Chantavas took over management. The Greek executive is Masdar’s chosen man for TERNA Energy’s new era, tasked with driving the UAE group’s expansion into Southeastern and Central Europe. The acquisition of “Enipeas” is the first move to demonstrate in practice the expanded role of the Greek company following the change in ownership. It is a deal that also changes the balance of the company’s portfolio. TERNA Energy, which has built its dominant position in the Greek market primarily through wind power, is significantly increasing its footprint in photovoltaics with a single move. With the addition of the 560 MWp project, budgeted at €395 million, its photovoltaic portfolio is expected to become the second largest in Greece, after the PPC–RWE partnership, while the company retains its leading position in wind energy.

Storage and Data Center

“Enipeas” is one of the largest photovoltaic projects currently under construction in Greece. It is being developed in the Regional Units of Larissa and Phthiotis and consists of two distinct clusters: Skopia, in the southern section, with a capacity of 400 MWp, and Kallithea, in the northern section, with a capacity of 160 MWp. Across a total area of approximately 6,926 stremmas (about 6.93 million square meters), 968,630 photovoltaic panels are planned for installation—that is, almost one million. Construction has been undertaken by the Ameresco–Sunel Energy consortium and, according to the latest schedule, the project is expected to enter operation before the end of 2027. The original plan had envisaged its completion by the end of 2026. In the same area, Lightsource bp has also obtained permits for two battery storage projects with a combined capacity of 150 MW. These are two units with capacities of 100 MW and 50 MW, respectively. However, alongside its new moves in renewable energy sources (RES), Masdar is opening up a different front in Greece, this time in the digital infrastructure market. The company has reached an agreement with Khazna Data Centers, one of the largest providers of hyperscale digital infrastructure in the Middle East, to explore the development of data centers with a total capacity of up to 600 MW in the country. The plan is accompanied by potential investments in renewable energy projects with a total capacity of up to 2.4 GW.

Eurobank Preparing a Second Securitization of Step-Up Loans

Eurobank appears to be proceeding with a second securitization of step-up loans, following the first, which is already underway and concerns the securitization and sale of a retail loan portfolio with a total carrying value of €374 million, including approximately €200 million in step-up loans. Divestment from this particular category of restructured loans is a priority for Greek banks, as, under the supervisory requirements of the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM), they are required to seek to restructure these loans again, provided the borrowers agree. For loans that do not return to regular repayment of principal and interest, the relevant provisions must be established by the end of 2026. Banks estimate that they will manage to restructure approximately 70% of these loans. The remainder are expected to be sold and securitized as part of the effort to limit credit risks. Step-up loans initially provide for low installments, which gradually increase. It should be noted that even for loans of this type that are restructured, credit risk remains high, since borrowers must meet monthly payments that are significantly higher than those under the previous arrangement—that is, the step-up loan terms. Following Eurobank, Piraeus Bank is also expected to initiate similar moves, preparing to securitize comparable portfolios.

Eurobank Shares Held by Eurolife Transferred to Fairfax

Since we are talking about Eurobank, it is worth mentioning that the bank was at the center of trading activity during Friday’s session, when eight block trades worth a total of €261.85 million were executed. Through prearranged transactions, 63.12 million shares changed hands, corresponding to 1.75% of the share capital, at prices ranging from €4.102 to €4.21. The standout transaction was the large block trade executed during the closing auction, worth €246.95 million and involving 59.53 million shares—equivalent to 1.65% of the share capital—at a price of €4.148 per share. Eurobank’s total gross trading turnover exceeded €315 million, with more than 76 million shares changing hands on the Athens Stock Exchange. The block of 59.5 million shares represented a transfer from Eurolife to Fairfax of the bank shares held in the portfolio of Eurolife AEAZ, the insurance company that was sold by its shareholder to the Eurobank Group.

Two Blue Chips Buck the Trend and Set Their Sights on New Highs

Athens International Airport and EYDAP are moving against the negative sentiment prevailing on the Athens Stock Exchange in recent days and throughout October. They are two of the most resilient large-cap stocks, with both seeking to reach new highs. Athens International Airport (AIA) has recorded 10 rising sessions out of the last 11, bringing it within touching distance of its all-time closing high of €12.96. On Friday, it finished the session at €12.93, having touched €12.98 intraday. The next major milestone is reaching €13. The stock has posted a 20.4% gain this year, with the airport’s market capitalization standing at €4.11 billion. The performance of EYDAP, the Athens Water Supply and Sewerage Company, is even more impressive, having recorded only four declining sessions during October. With a closing price of €13.88 on Friday, it approached its year-to-date high of €13.96 and is now setting its sights on €14—a price it has not exceeded on a closing basis for 26 years. The stock’s all-time record stands at €14.72, recorded on March 9, 2000. Trading turnover exceeded €1 million in each of the last three sessions, while the stock’s gains for the year have reached 76.6%, putting the company’s valuation at €1.47 billion.

Refenes’s New Company

Two years ago, Apostolos Refenes, an economics professor and former chairman of the Accounting and Auditing Standards Oversight Board (ELTE), established Alpha Terra Capital S.A. The company operates in the provision of asset management services, while the capital it had available itself (initial share capital of €150,000) was not… refené—a Greek word meaning “shared” or “contributed collectively”—but his own. Last Friday, October 23, he proceeded to establish a new company, “Alpha Performance,” with the purpose of providing investment services in shares, securities, real estate, and other assets; business management and asset management advisory services; and holding company services. The initial share capital has been set at €325,000, fully paid up upon incorporation entirely in cash. It is divided into 500,000 ordinary shares with a nominal value of €0.05 each (€25,000 in total) and 3,000 non-voting preference shares with a nominal value of €100 each (€300,000 in total). “Alpha Terra Capital Single-Member Société Anonyme for the Management of Alternative Investment Organizations,” represented by Apostolos Refenes, contributed a total of €325,000, corresponding to 503,000 shares (a 100% ownership stake). The management of the new company includes Apostolos Refenes as Chairman and CEO, Eftychia Thanou as Vice-Chairwoman, and Marcus Sebastian Bremer as a member. The same individuals hold the same positions on the board of Alpha Terra Capital as well.

The…Other Polls

We may have well and truly entered the pre-election period, with party headquarters operating at full throttle and opinion polls following one another in rapid succession. Despite the heated political climate and the barrage of estimates concerning party percentages, perceived chances of victory, the popularity of political leaders, the major problems facing citizens, and so on, opinion polls are not conducted only by political parties, the media, or, in some cases, candidates themselves. Other organizations conduct them too, although, of course, on entirely different subjects… I’m hearing that the Hellenic Hydrocarbons and Energy Resources Management Company (HEREMA S.A.)—the organization responsible for managing the entire undertaking involving exploration for Greek hydrocarbon deposits, as well as offshore wind farms—has its own opinion poll in the works. Two recent decisions by its management approved a project “concerning the design and conduct of an opinion poll on matters within the remit and of interest to HEREMA S.A.,” and the corresponding commitment of funds was also undertaken. The total budgeted expenditure amounts to €7,000 plus VAT (€1,680), meaning the cost will reach €8,680. Let’s see what this poll comes up with…

Thanassis Martinos and the New Freight Rates for Greek Tankers

The first cargo of Russian diesel, 40,000 tonnes, to be shipped to the United States following the lifting of restrictions is being transported aboard the AGIOI FANENDES, whose interests are associated with Thanassis Martinos, from Primorsk, with New York listed as its destination, although final discharge instructions are still pending. The immediate benefit for Greek shipping is the opportunity to compete for more cargoes and higher freight rates on a route that had previously been closed. If these shipments become regular, Greek companies operating oil-product carriers—the so-called product tankers—will have more employment options, with long-distance voyages tying up vessels for more days and reducing the available capacity in the market. This could support freight rates on other routes as well, not just those between Russia and the United States. At the same time, the return of cargoes to vessels with international insurance coverage creates an opportunity to reclaim transport business from the shadow fleet. In other words, the benefit for Greek shipowners is not limited to a new shipping route; it could affect the overall revenues of their fleets.

Panagiotidis: The $18 Million Changing Hands… but Not Leaving the Group

Petros Panagiotidis has made an interesting move on the New York stock market, involving two listed companies under his control. Robin Energy is acquiring the LPG carrier Dream Arrax from AI OKTO for $18 million in cash, increasing its fleet by 50%, from two vessels to three. The transaction is particularly interesting because of its timing. AI OKTO emerged from a spin-off completed on October 8 and, just two weeks later, agreed to sell one of its two vessels. As a result, Robin Energy is strengthening its presence in LPG transportation, while AI OKTO gains $18 million in liquidity. The agreement was approved by special committees of independent directors at both companies. What is noteworthy is that Panagiotidis is making use of two different stock-market platforms, rearranging shipping assets and liquidity among companies belonging to the same business circle. It is a move that shows that stock-market structuring has now become part of his fleet-growth strategy.

To Invest, You Need Your Own…Bomb Disposal Expert

There are many things someone needs to take into account before investing. But nowadays, you also need bomb disposal experts. They already know this at the Port of Thessaloniki. The interesting question now is who in the government will take responsibility for coordinating a solution. The outstanding issue concerning Pier 6 provides an opportunity to put the state to the test: a specific problem, a clear deadline, and a need for coordination among the responsible parties. This is where it will become clear who is responsible for picking up the phone and ensuring a result. If the cranes stop operating, the question will inevitably reach the Maximos Mansion. Since they knew about it, what were they waiting for?

More Expensive Money, Cheaper Banks

For two years, banks were Europe’s benchmark investment bet. As interest rates rose, bank shares rose too. In October, that bet reversed. The very same markets that are pricing in another ECB rate hike in December (and an overnight interest rate of 4.6% by September 2027) are now avoiding bank stocks. A Bloomberg chart tells the whole story in four numbers. The European banking index (SX7P) is trading at 1.49 times book value, down from 1.65 at its August peak. The US banking index stands at 1.67 times book value, down from 1.85. As for the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E), the figures are 10.9 for Europe versus 12.4 for the United States. Europe remains cheaper, but the declines in both markets are moving in tandem. The KBW Bank Index in the United States has recorded six consecutive weeks of declines—the longest losing streak since 2008—and is 13% below its August high, despite third-quarter results, with Citi describing the quarter as having delivered the best third-quarter revenues in a decade. In Europe, the toll is heavier. The banking index has lost 10% in six weeks, the three major French banks are down 17%, and Société Générale is down 25% from its peak. Why aren’t interest rates helping? Because they are now rising for the wrong reason. Since 2022, rising rates have meant wider net interest margins. Now, they mean a French bond spread of 175 basis points (wider than in 2012), €4.3 trillion in government bonds held in eurozone banks’ portfolios, the threat of non-performing loans, and a brake on credit demand. Sixty percent of the bonds are valued at amortized cost. In other words, the losses do not show up unless the bonds have to be sold. Bank of America’s September survey showed a net 25% of European fund managers overweight in banks. The most crowded carriage is the first one to empty.