Recep Tayyip Erdogan now appears certain to be elected Turkey’s next president. His victory will have profound and predictable effects on Turkey’s relationship with the United States. The two countries were already in the process of decoupling, and Erdogan’s re-election will hasten this decade-long process.

In both the United States and Turkey, political and national security elites believe that the other country is not vital for the pursuit of their national security interests. More to the point, leaders in both countries also believe that the other is actively sabotaging their regional goals and ambitions. As a result, the relationship is now propped up merely by institutional inertia and the very real fact that the two countries are treaty-bound to defend each other — even if they disagree over what it is that they should jointly pledge to fight.

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Erdogan’s looming victory, coupled with political dynamics in his country, expose what has long been evident: The two historic pillars of the U.S.-Turkish relationship have collapsed. The first and most basic U.S. policy priority was to strengthen Turkey. The second was to deepen its integration into the Western alliance. These goals explain why Washington was both a vocal supporter of Turkey’s efforts to join the European Union on the one hand, and its efforts to kill Kurdish militants on the other.

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