The impact of tariffs imposed by Donald Trump is now beginning to be seen, according to research by Goldman Sachs, adding new uncertainty to a Treasury bond market reeling from constant changes in forecasts of the pace of rate cuts.

To date, U.S. companies have absorbed most of the cost of the tariffs, but that burden will gradually shift to consumers as businesses raise their prices, Goldman Sachs economists, including Yan Hodgson, said in a report. U.S. consumers have absorbed about 22% of the cost of the tariffs through June, but that figure is expected to rise to 67% if the new tariffs follow the same path as those of previous years.

The net effect will be accelerating inflation. The core personal-cost index, a favorite inflation gauge of the Federal Reserve, is forecast to rise to an annualized 3.2% in December, according to Goldman analysts. Excluding the effect of tariffs, inflation is estimated at 2.4%, up from 2.8% in June.

The report, cited by Bloomberg, reinforces economists’ belief that Trump’s tariffs will fuel inflation at a time when the Fed‘s monetary policy is a central topic of discussion not only for bond investors but also for the US president himself. Trump has “broken” established conventions by openly calling on the Fed to cut interest rates, even suggesting the resignation of the central bank’s chairman, Jerome Powell, and adding – albeit temporarily – an ally to the Monetary Policy Committee.