The demographics debate returns with urgency to the public debate, as the data outline a reality that is hardly open to misinterpretation.

Greece has been steadily population declining, with births declining and the average age rising, creating an environment of intense demographic pressure. This is a development that is not just about numbers, but touches the core of social and economic cohesion.

The ELSTAT data on demography are worrying

Data from the Hellenic Statistical Authority leave little room for optimism. The natural balance remains negative, with deaths systematically exceeding births, while population ageing is accelerating.

Behind the indicators is a rapidly changing society. Fewer children in schools, demographic shrinkage in many parts of the country, changing local communities and a labour market that is being asked to adapt to new circumstances.

According to ELSTAT (18 December 2025), the permanent population of Greece on 1 January 2025 was 10,372,335, recording a marginal decrease of 0.03% compared to 2024, when the population was revised to 10,375,764.

This downward trend was mainly due to the natural decline in population, as deaths significantly outnumbered births. The physical decline in 2024 was 57,564 people, a number that equivalent to the size of an entire city.

At the same time, equally alarming are the demographic characteristics: On January 1, 2025, the population aged 65 and older accounted for 23.7%, while children aged 0-14 accounted for just 12.8%.

The number of children aged 15 to 15 years will be only 12.5 years, and the number of children aged 15 to 15 years will be only 12.5 years.

Can this course be reversed? The numbers, however, suggest that the issue does not lend itself to postponement.

In this context, protothema.gr contacted Konstantinos Zafiris, Professor of Demography at the Department of Humanities of the Democritus University of Thrace and member of the Institute of Demographic Research and Studies, who attempted to clarify what the numbers are really hiding, what factors are leading to the ongoing decline in births and whether there is a realistic possibility of reversing the trend that confronts the country with a new demographic reality.

“Right now we are in a situation where fertility in our country is extremely low. It is one of the lowest in Europe,” Mr. Zafiris initially noted, clarifying that the fall in fertility is a wider European phenomenon. However, in the Greek case, the picture is even worse.

“The fertility rate is about 1.24 children per woman, a very low number, he says, noting that the problem is exacerbated by the fact that “there are now fewer women of childbearing age.

This, he explains, means that“even if fertility increases, the total number of births will remain low.”

At the same time, he says, “the average age of having a child has risen to about 32 years, which is considered very high compared to the European average.”

The “explosive cocktail” of ageing

The demographic issue, however, is not limited to low birth rates. The professor describes a country that is ageing rapidly.

“Greece is already a very old country and forecasts show that ageing will continue in the coming decades, he stresses, speaking to protothema.gr. At the same time, although life expectancy is increasing, “it is not evolving at the same pace as in other European countries.”

Summing up, he speaks of an “explosive cocktail”: “Low fertility, few women of childbearing age and intense ageing are mathematically leading to a decline and further ageing of the population in the next 20 to 30 years.”

Greece of 2050

Mr. Zafiris appears realistic about the scope for reversing the situation. “Demographic developments up to 2050 are largely predetermined,” he says, stressing that even if measures are taken, “the problem cannot be completely solved, but it can be made less burdensome.”

The critical issue, he stresses, is not just the numerical decline.“The key problem is not just the decline of the population, but mainly its aging.”

Referring to the scenarios for the coming decades, Zafiris noted:

-Without measures, births could fall to 40,000 in 2053.
-With limited measures, they could be around 55,000.

-With very strong and coordinated policies, to reach about 72,000.

“Even in the most optimistic scenario where births are still not enough, population decline is considered a certainty. The question is not whether it will decrease, but how much and with what dynamics,”he stressed.

Region: a silent desertification

At the same time, he placed particular emphasis on geographical disparities. Asked about the picture in the periphery, he said: “Wealth and opportunities are concentrated in one or two large urban centres, while the periphery is declining.”

He said the problem is particularly acute in Northern Greece, Eastern Macedonia and Thrace, Epirus, and some areas of Peloponnese.

A typical example is the Northern Evros.

An example of such a situation is that of the “Highlanders”
Extreme mountain range.

“In the region one birth corresponds to about 50 deaths, while 75% of births in Evros take place in two cities, Alexandroupoli and Orestiada, and the remaining 25% in villages”, the professor stresses, adding that “all this constitutes conditions of rural desertification. We cannot have a country with an oversized capital, a co-capital that tends to become the same, two or three more big cities and from there on nothing.”

Specifically for Northern Greece, the professor points out that the problem is not only about low fertility and few births, but also about population migration.

“People are leaving for a better life somewhere else. There are so few people in the rural areas of the country that no matter how many children they have, there will still be few births,” he concludes.

On the contrary, the islands of the southern Aegean and Crete face less of a problem.

City centres are booming, but births remain low

Asked why large urban centers continue to attract young people, but at the same time have low fertility, the professor notes, among other things, that the cities themselves create conditions that act as a disincentive to the decision to have children.

“The high housing costs, the pressured work rhythms, insecurity about the future, the difficulty of combining work and family life and the lack of support structures such as adequate daycare centers form an environment where the decision to have a child is constantly postponed,” notes Mr. Zafiris,

At the same time, he appeared particularly sharp on the one-dimensional approach to benefits.

“Benefits are a necessary condition for supporting the family, but they are not sufficient to solve the demographic problem,” he clarified. As he notes, “demography is the mirror of society and the economy” and therefore “cannot be addressed by piecemeal, subsidy-based measures.”

Immigration

On the issue of immigration and whether this could be one of the solutions to the demographic the professor takes a pragmatic approach.

“No Western society can survive without immigration, he stresses. However, he makes it clear that an organised plan is needed. “Determining real needs, integration into the social and economic system, language learning and targeted coverage of labour market shortages.”

“Immigration can contribute, but it is not a solution in itself,”

Consequences

The consequences of demographic shrinkage will be multilayered and profound, affecting the education system, universities, the labour market and the social security system.

“The active population will be called upon to support a growing number of elderly people, Zafiris notes, and asks: “If this trend of decreasing the number of children born each year continues, in 20 years which children will go to Greek universities? Where will we find these children?”

At the same time, he stresses the need for policies that promote active ageing and decent living for the elderly.

“Greece will continue to decline demographically over the next 20-30 years, no matter what we do. The task is to mitigate the effects and create conditions for a good and dignified life.”

National demographic plan with a regional focus

addressing the problem, he said, requires a comprehensive strategy: economic growth, good jobs for young people, decent wages, housing policy and low-rent social housing for young couples.

“Without stable employment, decent income and access to housing, young couples find it difficult to take the next step, he points out, emphasizing support for the family “from the beginning of its creation.”

As he concludes “we have a lot of work to do. The demographics cannot be addressed with piecemeal measures or short-term policies. It requires a long-term national plan, political consensus and an emphasis on decentralisation and regional development. These are policies that will not see their effects in 1-2 years. What we will see in 20-30 years will be the result of today’s decisions. We are facing a phase of population change. It is a profound problem for which a holistic approach is needed to address it.”