The Easter holidays passed off without a hitch for the Maximos building, with the prime minister and his colleagues taking significant breathers. But the return to reality brings the government facing the … uphill climb, as thewar in the Middle East is still far from a prospect of a settlement, while at home the open fronts are many – with the first milestone being the debate on the rule of law and institutions that will take place on Easter Thursday in Parliament and will turn into an all-out clash with the opposition parties, against the backdrop of the OPEKEPE and the eavesdropping case.

In any case, with this data on the chessboard, the Mansion House will also enter into a logic of a broader calculation that includes Kyriakos Mitsotakis ‘ optimal time to call elections. There are government officials who believe that the best time would be “yesterday”, others who believe that, depending on developments on the war fronts and financial reserves, a window “opens” for the autumn, possibly October, while some believe that Mitsotakis will stick to his original plan to hold elections in April 2027.

The reserves and the package

In the beginning, however, is the management of the consequences of the war, as the bill directly concerns the planning of the economic staff. In this case, the economic staff had to call on fiscal reserves to provide the Fuel Pass package, costing around €200 million, with another €100 million being pumped in from the extraordinary tax on fruit machines/casinos. Reportedly, a slight extension of the measure to June cannot be ruled out, as everyone believes that the effects on the economies will last for quite some time, despite the prospect of a cessation of hostilities.

If the government’s planning returns to the “baseline scenario”, then two rounds of benefits will be considered again. Some new intervention could take place in early summer, fiscal space permitting, possibly for rents or even pensioners, while the TIF package would be progressively shaped.

Ideas abound, but last year was the year of direct tax cuts, so this year the cutting edge of intervention will be different. Interventions on indirect taxes – something Kyriakos Mitsotakis is not entirely on board with – have been on the table, as well as on the presumption for freelancers, on the grounds that every year the results from the battle against tax evasion are particularly encouraging.

It remains to be seen whether Mitsotakis will attempt to enlist the DETH announcements as an electoral stake, setting their implementation as the main thrust of his campaign speech in an autumn election scenario, or whether he will bet on implementing the package from the beginning of the new year, with the passing of the budget.

In any case, elections by the autumn are strictly ruled out, as the government is fighting a battle to absorb almost 6 billion from the Recovery Fund by the end of August, money that cannot be wasted under any circumstances.

RAP and the “institutional” counterattack

In any case, the main problem for the government seems to be the management of internal crises in relation to exogenous ones that act as a rallying tool for the New Democracy. The handlingof the second OPEKEPE case and the quick carve-outs of ministers “dynamited” the climate inside the New Democracy parliamentary group. Both the ministers who had received assurances of individualized management of their cases exploded behind the scenes, and the deputies involved in the dossier felt they were “hung on pegs” without adequate cover for several days.

Several blue MPs heard complaints in their constituencies over the Easter holidays, especially in rural counties where problems in the primary sector have been piling up. The climate is not easy to turn around, but the prime minister does not want to be “backed into a corner” ahead of the debate in Parliament on Thursday. The appointment, at the initiative of Nikos Androulakis, was set on the occasion of the wiretapping case, but now it takes on a new dimension. According to information from “THEMAS”, he will use the pre-agenda as a “plunger” in order to start the pre-review process of the Constitution, throwing the ball to the opposition for important institutional cuts.

The ND proposal is largely patterned on the comments and suggestions of about 50 “blue” MPs. There has already been a discussion on the proposal presented by Mitsotakis on minister-parliamentarian incompatibility, which everyone acknowledges needs to be discussed further, as it has the disadvantage that a minister who resigns as a parliamentarian can reclaim a cross, while the discussion on reducing the number of parliamentarians has been opened as compensation. Also on the table are proposals for term limits for MPs and self-governing MPs, but also the restructuring of the very method of electing MPs by changing constituencies.

Tension and defusing

In the internal party field, too, however, Mitsotakis is called upon to find ways to defuse the tension that has built up. The handling of Megaro Maximou in the first few days made MPs “boil”, saying that decisions were taken without the documentation having been effectively evaluated. The irritation intensifies when one considers that the scenario of a third dossier that could come within weeks has already begun and is already said to include two former ministers. And the rift of trust between many MPs and Maximos is real and widening.

Given these facts, a convocation of the ND Parliamentary Group seems rather inevitable, and the Constitutional Review may be the right occasion, although the right timing is being sought. The Mansion Maximou data will look for moves to defuse the situation, although the traditional “massage” no longer works, as the reshuffle passed without the utilization of MPs beyond Makarios Lazaridis. And MPs fight for survival ahead of them, the battle of the cross, which for each one is personal.