Ultimately, the month of March seems to “haunt” the markets and the Athens Stock Exchange. “Black Swan” events have appeared in markets almost every March in recent years: March 2020 the pandemic, March 2022 the war in Ukraine, and March 2023 the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank and the collapse of Credit Suisse Group.

Stock markets declined after the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East, while bond yields rose, as investors incorporate an additional geopolitical risk premium, reassessing inflation risks and economic growth prospects.

Goldman Sachs is examining an “adverse scenario” in which energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted for 30 days (pushing oil prices to around $130 per barrel) and a “very adverse” scenario with a 60-day disruption (where oil could reach $150 per barrel).

The war does not seem likely to end soon and, as it continues, it undermines the base scenario of a short conflict, intensifying uncertainty in the markets.

Deutsche Bank estimates that a repeat of the historic sell-off in stocks and bonds seen in 2022 during the peak of the global energy crisis is possible.

However, it notes that markets are not yet pricing in a 2022-style outcome, when Brent crude remained above $100 per barrel for about five months.

Additionally, unlike the oil shocks of 2022 and the 1970s, inflation is generally around target levels.

At least for now, markets have not yet reached the historical thresholds associated with major “risk-off” movements during previous oil crises. We also have not yet seen an aggressive policy shift from central banks, and given how early it is, there are no clear signs of worsening economic data.

Investors preparing “shopping lists”

Morgan Stanley believes investors should prepare “shopping lists” while waiting for the bull market to resume later this year.

It estimates that within six months the situation will likely calm down after this initial spike, just as happened following Russian invasion of Ukraine.

It is important, the bank notes, that the sharp rise in oil prices is due to a logistical bottleneck in the Strait of Hormuz, rather than a lack of supply.

According to Morgan Stanley, stocks usually reach their lowest point a few days after oil prices peak.

BlackRock focuses on the risk of a stagflationary shock, although this is not yet guaranteed, as suggested by current market pricing.

Often, “markets climb a wall of worry”—a classic stock-market saying that has been confirmed many times in the past and may also prove true in the current period.

Stock market history shows that markets tend to price in uncertainty before events occur and recover before conflicts end.

This is also highlighted by Goldman Sachs: most geopolitical shocks in recent years have not had a long-term impact on stock markets. Market corrections could therefore represent buying opportunities with relatively low risk.

The Greek economy remains resilient

Amid this climate, international financial institutions estimate in their reports that the Greek economy appears resilient despite geopolitical pressures.

The credit rating agency Fitch Ratings says the conflict in the Middle East is expected to last less than a month, while the Greek economy has stronger defenses compared with the Eurozone. Greek banks are expected to withstand any short-term impacts thanks to their strong balance sheets.

Fitch forecasts Greek economic growth of 2.1% for 2026–2027.

Meanwhile, Moody’s sees stable prospects for Greek banks despite geopolitical pressures, as favorable economic conditions and strong credit expansion are expected to support key financial indicators during 2026–2027.

The agency also estimates that Greek banks will avoid immediate credit deterioration due to the conflict in the Middle East.

Goldman Sachs likewise notes that the Greek economy is resilient and relatively shielded from an energy shock.

Economic growth momentum in Greece remains strong, and the experience of the 2022 energy crisis suggests that Greece is relatively less exposed to energy price crises than most Eurozone countries.

In addition, given the current cautious fiscal policy, the Greek government still has fiscal space to fund measures that could offset part of the economic impact of such a shock.