-Hello there, so… last week’s “prophecy” came true—at least in polling terms. According to surveys completed on Saturday, ND has once again reached 30% (30.2% to be precise), the government’s quality indicators improved, so did the Prime Minister’s, and the Tempi train crash issue significantly dropped in prominence. Now, if the opposition wants to embrace the new trend called “researcher Carrasco,” who claims that the Hellenic Police forensics lab is lying about the authenticity of the freight train videos, and start up the wild tales with turpentine again, they can—but then, especially PASOK… will be crying. In the same survey, commissioned by M.M., little Zoe is slightly reined in but still in second place with about 15% (all these numbers are after adjustment), while PASOK is just below Zoe, but doing a bit better than in the previous poll. Among older voters, Nikolaras comes second, but among young people and women he’s still in third place—despite his charm and Cretan swagger. Velopoulos remains steady but below 10%, SYRIZA is in the basement (5%-6%), and Kasselakis and Latinopoulou are in political limbo, around 3%. That’s all.

University chaos versus Building Code reform
-Now let’s get to the meat of things. Let’s compare two issues the government dealt with in recent days, just to show that if you really want to get something done (and you’re in power), you do it—and if you want to just “sift it through,” you let it drag. So, after construction activity took a proper dive for five months due to M.M.’s hesitation, and the ministry’s reluctance to sort out the Building Code (NOK), the matter is finally heading towards resolution via a legislative amendment to be submitted in a few days. Of course, this doesn’t involve any… miracle. Simply, the new minister (Papastavrou) was instructed by K.M. to resolve it, and he did—even if it comes with some political cost, which the government would’ve had to shoulder anyway, so better late than five months of stalled construction.

Write it down for me…
-On the flip side, there’s the complete mess in universities, especially at EKPA, Law School, and Athens University of Economics and Business, where the university authorities refuse to confront the perennial gangrene of anarcho-leftist groups and so-called students. Nearly five years have passed, and the situation continues to be a major embarrassment for the government. On Saturday, a meeting was held under K.M., and my source told me that Zacharaki probably attended more as a… courtesy invite. Chrysochoidis told them that the police is available any time to impose order if called, but unless they enforce the 2021 law that provides for proper campus security, the cops will always be arriving after the fact—unless we want two or three riot squads assigned to every university conference, which is simply not doable. So, now they’re looking for a way to amend the law to allow for the permanent expulsion of students who cause trouble, and to make sure these two universities, in particular, hire private security. At one point, someone suggested bringing back the Campus Police, and K.M. got annoyed and said, “Guys, stop with the nonsense—this didn’t work, people will just laugh at us,” and that pretty much ended the meeting. If you see any results, let me know so I can write them down… By the way, the same source at M.M. told me, “If Siasos thinks that with everything he’s (not) doing he’ll become an ND MP, he’s delusional.”

BOAK—Signatures
-At the end of the week, specifically on Friday, the signatures are expected for a massive project: the contract for the BOAK (Northern Road Axis of Crete). The total cost is expected to exceed €2 billion, and PM Mitsotakis is expected to attend the signing ceremony in Crete, along with the leadership of the Ministry of Infrastructure and Transport. To get this project moving and tap into Recovery Fund money, the new minister Christos Dimas really hustled, even bringing a provision to Parliament for local expropriations.

The Egyptians are coming
-On Wednesday, we’re expecting some high-profile arrivals, as Egyptian President Al-Sisi will be coming with several of his ministers for the Greece-Egypt High Council for Cooperation. The Greece-Egypt partnership, in the midst of a tough geopolitical climate, remains a “constant” in a complex region—regardless of what Turkey is up to. And of course, the bilateral and economic cooperation in several areas remains strong and deepening—especially in energy and migration.

Talks about DELTA and the DODONI deal that’s… simmering
-And now, to market news—starting with the ever-busy CVC, which is currently in talks to divest from DELTA. Sources say no formal offer has been made yet, but everything points to it being just a matter of time, and it’s definitely a big deal. Even though talks have been ongoing for a while, the deal hasn’t “solidified” yet, with the usual suspect Spyros Theodoropoulos rumored to be the interested buyer. This column wants to believe that the current discussions around DELTA are not the reason behind the delay in the agreement with Olympus—Sarantis brothers—for Dodoni. Official announcements were originally expected before Easter, then pushed to the week after… and still nothing. This column is cautious because “official” sources report the following oxymoron: the deal is done, the price agreed (enterprise value just over €200 million, with €95 million in assumed debt), but it’s being delayed due to procedural and minor details that need to be ironed out. That could very well be the case—but a “closed and agreed” deal with pending procedural and detail clarifications is not standard practice.

AKTOR’s double negotiation
-AKTOR is on the verge of signing a deal to acquire a stake in a major concession project. The process is fairly advanced, and announcements are expected within the month. At the same time, AKTOR CEO Alex Exarchou is engaged in parallel talks to acquire an additional stake in another concession project, with a deal expected by June. Out of nowhere, AKTOR now holds a strong PPP and Concessions portfolio, making it the second-biggest player in the Greek market in this sector. Moreover, note that Exarchou plans to further strengthen the group’s activities in PPPs and Concessions, and has expressed interest in aggressively entering the Romanian market—once the government there starts using this model to fund infrastructure projects.

The Deals in the Drill

-Hydrocarbons appear to be a particularly hot sector in Greece for the near future—not only due to international interest, mainly from the United States regarding potential domestic reserves—but also because of the rumored deals cooking among market stakeholders. At the center of attention are at least two Greek companies holding significant assets in the fossil fuel sector, which seem to have piqued the interest (one way or another) of equally powerful suitors looking to get a foothold in this market. Fossil fuels, especially following Trump’s election, are becoming a big story in the energy world with long-term potential. Sources say talks of partnerships between companies in the sector have already begun, with some being especially optimistic about the outcome. In any case, hydrocarbons are also a top priority for the Minister of Environment and Energy, Stavros Papastavrou, who is packing his bags for Houston, Texas, in the coming days for meetings with executives of American companies interested in drilling southwest of Crete and south of the Peloponnese.

Hell Week Begins for the Banks

-With the General Index having recovered all its losses from the major international stock market jitters, Athens Avenue kicks off the dance of bank earnings announcements tomorrow—a sector that now needs to justify its capitalization of €35 billion (including the Bank of Cyprus). Following tomorrow’s results from Piraeus Bank, National Bank and Eurobank follow on Thursday, and the announcements wrap up Friday with Alpha Bank. Piraeus seems to have taken the biggest hit from the cap the government imposed on transaction fees back in February. Eurobank, for the first time, fully integrates Hellenic Bank Cyprus. Alpha Bank pulls in revenue from Romania. As for National Bank, it’s certain they’re cooking up a major surprise. Sitting on a large cash reserve, they’ve clearly been planning their own move after losing National Insurance. What makes this quarter’s announcements particularly distinct is that they are among the most difficult presentations banks have had to make to analysts—not because the results won’t be good (on the contrary, the figures are very strong), but because banks now need to prove—this is what analysts are demanding—that the drop in interest income won’t seriously affect long-term results. And they need to back it up with solid data. Sure, €1.6 billion in net credit expansion was achieved in Q1, but analysts know that most of that came from just 3–4 large Greek business groups. Now the banks have to show that this credit expansion will continue and be enough to support growth in their metrics. That said, both Mediobanca and JP Morgan Chase have issued positive reports, revising price targets and forecasts for the sector, which already shows a +26% return year-to-date. Starting today, Eurobank shares trade ex-dividend (€0.105/share), with the dividend credited to shareholders’ accounts this Friday—adding extra liquidity to the system.

Megalou’s Meetings in the UAE

-Last week, C. Megalou and his team from Piraeus Bank had a series of meetings with investors in Abu Dhabi, UAE, possibly in anticipation of tomorrow’s quarterly earnings release and the dividend distribution (€0.298/share) in early June. The ex-dividend date for the cash payout is set for June 3rd. The next day, June 4th, is the record date, and the cash distribution is scheduled for June 10th. Meanwhile, Piraeus Bank’s management has planned participation in all major international investment conferences: in London (UBS, May 13–14), Kavouri (Wood, May 15–16), Berlin (Goldman Sachs, June 10–11), and Miami (BofA, May 28–29).

The Serpieris Mansion Nightmare

-And since we’re on the topic of Piraeus, let’s just say—it wasn’t exactly unexpected, but the renovation of the Serpieris Mansion complex (former ATE central offices), which has been listed as a historical landmark since 1974 and belongs to Piraeus Bank, is proving to be a bureaucratic and zoning nightmare. The bank commissioned DIMAND for the building’s overhaul, intending it to house future headquarters. DIMAND has been working overtime filing countless permit applications. But now, the relevant departments of the Ministry of Culture are demanding resubmission of the structural reinforcement plan for the building complex at 23 Panepistimiou and Edward Law streets “in order to uniformly address the structural integrity across all floors, taking into account the valuable interior decorations, which must not be compromised.”

Strong Hands in OPAP Stock

-With eight straight sessions in the green, a 9% rise, and a total return of 29% since the beginning of the year, OPAP’s stock has handsomely rewarded investors who added it to their portfolios. It’s now at a 16-year high, surpassing €20 per share, with the company valued at €7.5 billion. Specifically, the stock sits at €20.24—a price not seen since early June 2009. The market is buzzing about the momentum shown by the stock, especially with its rare daily “bursts,” indicating that strong investment hands are increasing positions—not just for OPAP’s growth story (last year’s results were stellar, and 2025 is shaping up just as well), but because they seem to foresee developments in the gambling sector. Add to that the generous dividend of €1.4 per share for last year, giving investors even more reason to renew their vote of confidence. This coming Wednesday, May 7th, is the ex-dividend date for the supplementary €0.80 payout (net €0.76/share), with payment scheduled a week later, on May 14th.

Profile: Full Steam Ahead in Scandinavia

-There’s a buzz of excitement at Profile Systems and Software S.A. headquarters on Syngrou Avenue, after Kommuninvest—one of Sweden’s top financial institutions—chose the Greek banking solution Finuevo Core by Profile to modernize and upgrade its operations. The €10 million contract is a big deal for Profile’s scale, but what’s even more impressive is that they were picked over seven strong contenders, including giants like Tietro EVRY (market cap $1.9 billion) and Fidelity National Info FIS (market cap $41.5 billion). At the end of 2024, Profile had signed a smaller (€4 million) but similar agreement with Danske Bank, Denmark’s No.1 bank. Clearly, the investments Profile made in 2021–2022 are bearing fruit, and the Scandinavian peninsula looks like a springboard for new expansion. Today, Profile is valued at €141 million on the stock exchange, and Eurobank Securities estimates that with €50 million in revenue and €13.5 million in operating profit this year, the stock justifies a price increase to €6.70 from the current €5.70.

New Government Committee Assigns €3 Billion in Projects to the Superfund

-There’s no denying that Greece has turned a new page in how it handles EU funds and coordinates its public sector. Over €3 billion will be added to state coffers as a result of dozens of completed actions—mainly infrastructure and environmental protection projects. A new Government Committee for National Strategic Projects is already in the works to assign projects exceeding €3 billion to the PPF, including sports facilities, rail, and water management projects.

The Rules of the Game Change for iOS Payments

-It’s a landmark ruling from the U.S. Federal Court in California in the Apple vs. Epic Games case. After years of pressure, lawsuits, and complaints not just from Epic but others like Spotify, Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers ruled that Apple had once again violated California’s antitrust law. The court ordered Apple to allow external payment links in its apps—without the infamous 30% App Store cut! Stripe quickly seized the opportunity and offered iOS developers an alternative, charging just 2.9% + 30 cents per transaction—cutting costs by a whopping 90%. Despite losing in court, Apple had previously tried to slap a 27% fee on external payments, a move also ruled illegal. This decision shakes up the landscape for iOS apps—a multi-billion-dollar industry—giving creators more freedom and profit potential.

A Tribute

-It’s front-page news across all financial media. The iconic figure of global investing, the “Oracle of Omaha,” 94-year-old Warren Buffett, is stepping down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway after 55 years at the helm. The average CEO age in S&P 500 companies is 57. Warren Buffett is the longest-serving CEO of any company on Wall Street. His legacy is unmatched. He became CEO in 1970, and since then, Berkshire Hathaway’s stock has delivered a return of +330,000%. We may never again see an investor as successful as Warren Buffett. The legacy he leaves his successor is simple: Lots of cash and a few carefully chosen stocks. Berkshire just announced a record $348 billion in cash. It holds $305.5 billion in U.S. Treasury bills and $36.9 billion in cash across its insurance and other businesses. For comparison, the U.S. Federal Reserve currently holds just $195.3 billion in Treasuries. Notably, Berkshire didn’t buy a single share in Q1 this year.