Hello there. I won’t start with the headlines this time—something I’ve been doing lately—in order to offer some fresh “news tidbits,” not just the daily grind. So, I’ve learned that Kyriakos Pierrakakis has been breathing fire these days… at the bankers. My source tells me he’s extremely irritated with them because, as he puts it, “we’re trying to assess the impact on the banking system from the Supreme Court decision, and they’re busy figuring out how to squeeze yet another ATM fee out of ordinary people. How greedy can they be?” Let me explain: Pierr doesn’t care in the slightest whether bank profitability will be affected by the Areios Pagos ruling on non-performing loans—which, truth be told, will cost them dearly (but they should have been more careful). What matters is preventing the logic of that ruling from being extended “to everything and everywhere” in the credit system and blowing the whole thing up. Try explaining that to the public, though, given what they see banks doing every single day. In any case, a few days ago Pierrakakis had his services—triggered by an incident in which one bank charged another digital bank ATM fees—send out a circular reminding them that “no-fee” rules apply to everyone and to everything. I’m told there will be follow-up soon.

The minimum wage

• A lot of debate has opened up over the minimum wage and the size of the increases to be announced in March. Kyriakos Mitsotakis wants to put the brakes on a maximalist discussion, which is why Niki Kerameus appeared yesterday to remind everyone that, toward the pre-election target of €950 in 2027, only about €70 now remain. Therefore, the increase could be split into two equal installments this year and next. K.M. knows he doesn’t have to reckon only with workers, but also with businesses—which, in this case, are the ones footing the bill.

Today’s cabinet: the bill on illegal gambling

• I hear the Ministry of Finance is in “bill mode.” Pierrakakis and his team have been working over the past few days on the final details of provisions to tackle illegal gambling, so that the final draft can be presented at today’s cabinet meeting and, once approved, sent on for consultation and passage. According to my sources, the proposed framework provides for a substantial strengthening of the Hellenic Gambling Commission, in staffing, institutional powers, and even investigative authority. As for the bill’s footprint, just consider the enormous sums moving through illegal betting: well over €1.5 billion annually. It’s clear we’re talking about a real risk of asset loss, with the Finance Ministry aiming to reduce citizens’ exposure to uncertified and unsafe betting outlets.

Samaras–Chevron

• Regular readers of the column may have noticed our restraint in commenting on Antonis Samaras, and there are several reasons. Samaras served the country during difficult years in office, endured 15 years of political exile after bringing down—through political entanglements—a lawfully elected government of his own party, and recently has been living through an unspeakable personal tragedy. Yesterday’s move, however—accusing the government of surrendering sovereign rights through the signing with Chevron—doesn’t warrant criticism; it’s simply what you’d call a dud.

The risk and the response

• Under other circumstances, the Maximos Mansion would not have responded to Samaras. But because the former prime minister raised issues that the ND right wing could seize upon as a banner in the coming period, the government chose yesterday to respond—centrally, even if via leaks from government officials. I find it interesting that Maximos spoke of “habitual, out-of-touch statements,” effectively portraying Samaras as “something of a quaint figure by now.” All in all, it’s just sad.

Against his own people

• Since we’re talking about Samaras, it’s noteworthy that he now openly positions himself against his own people. He’s done so in the Peloponnese, where he barely speaks to regional governor Dimitris Ptochos, whom he accuses of being too “Mitsotakis-aligned,” even though he was once his own protégé. He did the same with yesterday’s statement on Chevron, the contract and file for which were handled by Stavros Papastavrou—who had done similar work with contracts and legal texts at Maximos during Samaras’s tenure.

PASOK olé

• Now on to PASOK news. First, listen to and watch Anna Diamantopoulou’s interview with Evgenidis (protothema.gr). I’ll refrain from comment out of courtesy (she gave it to us, after all), but you can really tell—from what she says—what’s going on inside the Movement. What I can’t help commenting on is the incredible reply by Geroulanos, when a TV journalist (Papachlimintzos) asks him: “Mr. Geroulanos, you see that 68% of people in the polls are dissatisfied with the government, and only 12% trust PASOK with their vote— isn’t that a problem?” And what does fearless Pavlaras answer? “Of course! You see it as a problem; I see it as an opportunity to rise.” Fsss… Boeing.

Brad Pitt – €2.5 million

• I’m following with great interest the filming of The Riders on Hydra with beloved Brad Pitt. I think that if the movie is even halfway decent, it’ll be huge promotion for the country—and for Hydra, of course. I asked whether the film received a subsidy from EKOME, and I was officially told it will receive around €2.5 million. And that’s little, considering the millions that get poured into Greek dud series, mostly for backroom-dealing and entanglement reasons. We said it before: our government is perpetually… well-rounded—playing both sides, and especially prone to doing favors. What can you do.

The Swiss franc regulation

• Although banks initially reacted, the government’s regulation on Swiss franc loans is already drawing significant interest from borrowers. With the simplification of the complex bankruptcy-law system—which may remove legal substance from certain cases—reports have begun reaching the European Union. It is clarified, therefore, that so far no violation of EU law has been identified, nor has any related procedure been initiated. Of course, the Commission always retains the right to request additional information or clarifications from member states on similar regulations.

The Katseli Law bill

• Staying with banks: early this morning Piraeus Bank will announce its 2025 results, and at 14:00 management will brief analysts. Latest information suggests a dividend of around €0.44 per share is expected and will meet market expectations. In the afternoon Eurobank will announce results, and tomorrow National Bank of Greece along with Alpha Bank. No crystal ball is needed to predict that analysts will try to extract from bank management their estimates of the impact of the recent Areios Pagos ruling on the interest calculation of Katseli Law loans. Analysts will ask, but it’s obviously difficult to get answers before the judges’ decision and reasoning are formally written up and published. Without knowing the full rationale, chief economists can’t accurately assess the extent of potential exposure, and thus banks can’t (yet) make additional provisions.

Mezzanine under pressure

• In any case, the Supreme Court decision on the interest calculation of Katseli Law loans doesn’t concern only the four systemic banks. Experienced market watchers point out that the ruling will significantly affect mezzanine bonds of securitizations traded on the Athens Stock Exchange. This is a segment relatively unknown to the wider investing public, though not to institutions. Greek mezzanine tranches of “red loan” securitizations were issued under the Hercules scheme and are backed mainly by non-performing loans, a significant share of which fall under Katseli Law arrangements. How interest is calculated on these loans directly affects the cash flows feeding bond repayments, and thus their valuation. If the court’s reasoning forces servicers to revise interest methods retroactively, projected collections change—along with the credit quality of mezzanine tranches. That means pressure on trading prices, especially for titles already near the limits of their base assumptions.

Exarchou’s new deals

• Information suggests that Alexandros Exarchou won’t stop at the commercial agreements for buying and selling U.S. LNG in Southeast Europe concluded recently in the U.S.; new ones with other countries are already in the works. The Vertical Corridor story is proving to be a historic opportunity to enhance the country’s geopolitical significance and pave the way for major energy investments. The volume secured in the U.S. by the AKTOR–DEPA partnership creates needs for critical infrastructure, with a new FSRU being just one of them.

And thus Euronext Athens was born

• It’s official—and significant—that yesterday, Wednesday February 25, the company “Euronext Athens S.A.” was established, following the acquisition of the Athens Exchange by the Euronext Group. The new company is headquartered at 110 Athinon Avenue and has initial share capital of €25,000, fully covered by founding shareholder “Hellenic Exchanges–Athens Stock Exchange Holdings S.A.” Its purpose is “to carry out activities relating to the provision of services for organizing stock market transactions, exchange operations, and market management in accordance with applicable law,” along with several secondary activities. The first board—with a distinctly Franco-Italian flavor—includes Camille Wael Beudin as Chairman, Ioannis Kontopoulos as CEO, and Sébastien Anthony Emile d’Herbes, Emilie Rieupeyroux, Giorgio Riccardo Maria Alfonso Modica, and Manuela Bassi as non-executive members. Most are already familiar, having staffed the new HCMC board since January 22. The board’s term will be four years, until 25/2/2030.

Fessas’s move on Fourlis

• Quest Holdings of the Fessas Group’s move to acquire a 5% stake in the Fourlis Group continues to spark comments and scenarios. The stake was built gradually; until recently Quest held 4.86%, rising to 5.05% after recent purchases. From the Fessas side, it’s said this participation has no strategic or hostile intent—just an investment bet on Fourlis’s prospects. Time will tell whether it’s purely investment. Especially whether those prospects, recognized by the market after the management change, will be confirmed. Competition in the group’s retail segments has intensified. Even IKEA, long playing solo in home furnishings, now faces strong rivals like JYSK, which rapidly built a strong network in Greece, while Praktiker, recently acquired by Romania’s Dedeman, is expected to move aggressively. In sporting goods, there’s also a bloodbath for market share, as well as in wellness products, where Fourlis is present via Holland & Barrett, for which all options are being considered. Quest’s entry announcement sparked fresh buying interest, and the stock rose about 7% in just two sessions.

Angeliki, Tsantanis, and the Chinese

• While new shipbuilding orders slowed during Asian holidays, Seanergy Maritime Holdings, led by Stamatis Tsantanis, didn’t sit idle. Two new bulker orders strengthen the fleet renewal program begun last year, including a sister ship to the already ordered 181,000 dwt capesize at Hengli Heavy Industries, costing $75.2 million. The second, a 211,000 dwt newcastlemax, is priced at $75.8 million, with delivery in 2028. And as if that weren’t enough, Anna Angelicoussis’s Pantheon Tankers Management is closing four VLCCs at Hengli Heavy Industry.

US Tariffs and the Concern for Greek-Owned Shipping

• The decision of the US Supreme Court to overturn Trump-era tariffs has not reassured the shipping industry. Instead, it opens a new cycle of policy recalibration with potential consequences for trade flows, creating a high-risk environment for container shipping. The sector is closely monitoring every move from Washington. Section 122, which allows the United States to permit the temporary import of goods without full payment of duties under specific conditions, if raised to 15%, increases costs for imports from the EU and the United Kingdom, while reducing costs for imports from certain Asian countries. For Greek-owned and international shipping, the possibility of “front-loading” cargoes ahead of higher tariffs may lead to a temporary surge in demand for capacity and upward pressure on freight rates. The biggest issue, however, is uncertainty about the next step. Section 301 tariffs, which allow the US government to impose additional duties or import restrictions on products from specific countries, have no fixed time limit and can change very quickly. For shipping companies, this means that cargo flows and transport contracts must be adjusted based on constantly shifting scenarios. The involvement of the US Department of Commerce, with simultaneous investigations into “major trading partners,” reinforces the sense that the rules will remain volatile and compliance costs high. Although Section 122 tariffs are temporarily lower for Asian imports, the subsequent application of Section 301 measures could restore—or significantly increase—transport costs. For Greek-owned bulk and container vessels operating on US routes, this uncertainty means that loading schedules, freight pricing, and capacity management require greater flexibility and continuous monitoring. In essence, Wall Street and shipping analysts see that US tariff policy has not changed direction; it has simply adopted more transparent and legally resilient procedures. The outcome for shipping remains the same: higher cost volatility, the potential for increased freight rates, and the need for strategic adjustment in both the short and medium term. Greek-owned and international shipping are therefore called upon to manage this fluid environment in a way that limits risks to profitability, while new disruptions cannot be ruled out as Washington moves forward with Section 301 tariffs and possible retaliatory actions from the EU, Japan, or South Korea.

OTE in High Frequencies – Reaches the €18 Milestone

• OTE shares are posting an impressive performance, reaching levels last seen in the summer of 2022. The stock broke through the technical threshold of €18 and closed at a four-year high, as investors anticipate positive announcements this morning regarding the group’s 2025 results, guidance for the current year, and the upcoming dividend. At the same time, the market is pricing in a series of additional catalysts giving fresh momentum to the stock. At the top of the agenda is the strategic focus on accelerating investments in fiber-to-the-home (FTTH), alongside a gradual improvement in profit margins in the German market through parent company Deutsche Telekom, which now appears to be giving the “green light” for a more aggressive dividend policy. Analysts note that OTE is increasingly viewed as a “safe bet” in a period of heightened volatility. Strong free cash flow generation and the ongoing share buyback program provide a solid safety net, while improved domestic competitive conditions allow the company to maintain market share. OTE also appears to have left behind a long consolidation phase and is now looking toward new multi-year highs—levels last seen in May 2008—with institutional investors re-entering the stock as part of portfolio rotation, seeing in OTE a blend of defensive protection and growth potential.

The Downfall of Lagarde

• After years at the heart of Europe’s power corridors, Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, is facing a painful downfall. The Financial Times revealed—and Bloomberg confirmed—that Lagarde is preparing to step down early from the ECB, ahead of the French presidential elections in April 2027 and before the official end of her term in October of that year. The reason cited for her early departure is her desire to allow French President Macron and German Chancellor Merz to choose her successor before Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella potentially come to power in France. Bloomberg’s survey shows that more than half of economists expect her departure this year, while fewer than 30% believe she will complete her term. The leading successor is Klaas Knot. New revelations are now emerging. In a written response to MEPs Fabio De Masi and Dick Eriksson, Lagarde disclosed—for the first time—that she received CHF 130,457 from the Bank for International Settlements in 2025 (around €140,000). This payment relates to her role as a member of the BIS Board, the institution that brings together the heads of the world’s major central banks. ECB internal rules explicitly prohibit staff from accepting third-party remuneration for activities carried out as part of their official duties. This applies even to the ECB employee accompanying her to BIS meetings, who is not allowed to receive a single euro from the same organization. Beneath the media reports, bitter comments from ECB staff have surfaced. “Preach water, drink wine!” wrote one anonymous employee. Officially, the ECB argues that Lagarde is subject to a different code of conduct than other central bankers. Jerome Powell, head of the Federal Reserve, and Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, do not claim any remuneration from the BIS. With total annual earnings estimated at €743,000, Lagarde is now considered the highest-paid official in the European Union—a central banker preaching austerity and fiscal discipline while receiving benefits denied to her own staff.

When Money Runs Faster Than Growth

• Ask any banker or market professional about the trajectory of the markets and they will immediately point to unprecedented liquidity. There is a single indicator—and it has broken all historical records. The Broad Supply Money Index reached $144 trillion last December, marking an annual increase of $13.6 trillion, or +10.4%. This is the third consecutive acceleration in the growth of the BMS Index. From 2000 to today, global money supply increased by $118 trillion, with a compound annual growth rate of +7%. After the 2020 pandemic, the increase amounted to $44 trillion—+44% in just five years. The fastest growth rate was recorded in February 2021, at +18.7%, at the peak of pandemic-era monetary expansion. These are the good news—for financial markets. The problem is that this pace of money growth (+10.4% globally) is not justified by real economic growth. Global GDP is expanding at just 2.5% to 3%. This vast gap between available money and global growth fuels two parallel phenomena: the depreciation of the US dollar as a reserve currency, and the continuous appreciation of “hard” assets such as gold, real estate, and equities backed by tangible assets. Global liquidity remains abundant and continues to support markets in the short term. However, the unprecedented speed of money creation—“never before seen outside a crisis”—raises serious questions about the future.