The prices of supermarket products in December 2024 decreased by an average of 0.94% compared to December 2023, according to the results of a study by the Research Institute of Retail Consumer Goods (IELKA). The same study shows full price stabilization throughout 2024, with a marginal average increase of +0.04% compared to 2023.

Specifically, IELKA’s study, focusing solely on large supermarket chains and inflationary trends in organized food retail, examined the price trajectory between December 2024 and December 2023. It found a deflation rate of -0.94% in December 2024 within supermarket chains. According to IELKA, this December variation was attributed to price reductions in both non-food and food categories, with only a few specific categories showing increases due to circumstantial factors, such as cocoa and coffee-related products and certain fresh items impacted by climate conditions.

The largest price reductions were recorded in the following categories: detergents and cleaning supplies (-10.52%), pet food and supplies (-7.8%), paper products, cosmetics, and personal hygiene items (-5.42%), baby and toddler food (-4.74%), and frozen goods (-3.1%). These reductions are attributed to the normalization of the market post-pandemic and a decrease in producer prices for certain products.

The largest price increases were observed in the following categories: biscuits, chocolates, and confectionery (+4.5%), fresh fish and seafood (+4.44%), appetizers, cured foods, and other ready-to-serve items (+4.03%), alcoholic beverages (+3.42%), and water, soft drinks, and juices (+2.59%).

According to IELKA, the global prices of cocoa and coffee significantly influence the sweets and beverage categories, as well as breakfast items that often contain chocolate. Regarding the increase in fish prices, the prolonged heat reduced the availability of fish for harvesting, leading to market shortages and price hikes. Aquaculture production only barely managed to meet demand. Concerning alcoholic beverages, the reduced grape harvest of 2023 resulted in higher prices in 2024, as aged products entered the market. Out of the 23 categories analyzed in the study, 14 recorded price reductions, while 9 saw increases.

There was also full price stabilization throughout 2024, with an average change of +0.04% compared to 2023. Over the 12 months of 2024, prices were reduced on average in 7 months and increased in 5 months. Overall, there was a decline in prices across almost all categories studied. Specifically, 12 of the 23 categories showed average increases in 2024, while 11 recorded decreases. The most significant reductions were in detergents and cleaning supplies, paper products, cosmetics, and personal hygiene items, eggs and butter, dairy products, and baby food. Conversely, price increases were observed in fresh fish and seafood, biscuits and chocolates, water, soft drinks and juices, and alcoholic beverages.

The factors attributed to the trend of price stabilization in supermarket products, according to IELKA, include:

• Gradual inflation deceleration. Prices have been stabilizing in recent months in large food retailers due to high product volumes, economies of scale, organizational and technological readiness, and a wide range of private-label products.
• Raw material price trends in international markets. Food raw material indices (e.g., FAO Food Price Index) recorded declines in early 2024 in most cases. However, for products like coffee and cocoa, the effect was reversed.
• Government regulatory interventions. Supermarket chains operate under strict regulatory frameworks (e.g., the prohibition of promotional actions in cases of price increases, Law 6969/2024). Additionally, a voluntary initiative for price reductions on specific products was introduced in October.
• Promotions and discounts. Promotions and discounts in organized retail are more numerous, intense, and offer higher percentage reductions, significantly affecting final product prices.
• High stock turnover speed. Price stabilization is more apparent in larger retail outlets due to higher stock turnover rates. These outlets quickly deplete their inventory and make new purchases to replenish stock, leading to faster price adjustments.
• Impact of private-label products. Private-label product sales share is higher in large supermarket chains due to their broader product range, and sales have increased in the past two years.